Canadian Warning?

Simon Lewis (a Climate Scientist at University College London and the University of Leeds) clearly believes the recent record temperatures in Canada warn that more and more of our world will soon be too hot for humans (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jun/30/canada-temperatures-limits-human-climate-emergency-earth). Lewis notes that humans cannot survive extended exposures to 'wet-bulb' temperatures beyond 35 degrees Centigrade. This is because, at such temperatures we have no way to cool our bodies, even if shade and unlimited supplies of water are available. Lewis says a wet-bulb' temperature, beyond 35 degrees Centigrade, was once regarded as 'impossible'. In recent times, however, locations in the Persian Gulf and Pakistan's Indus Valley have reached such temperatures albeit for short periods and in limited areas. Lewis suggests that global heating will inevitably result in temperatures like these lasting longer and affecting greater areas. He notes e.g. that the 2019 European heatwave killing 2,500 people, is five times more likely than before global heating. Lewis opines we must a) quickly reduce 'greenhouse gas' emissions and b) prepare for inevitable future heatwaves. The latter means having to 'future proof' energy supplies (so that air conditioning etc can be maintained) and agriculture (so we can feed ourselves). I would have thought these things were obvious but politicians seem to drag their heels.

Pigs in Radioactive Clover?

The tsunami-generated nuclear disaster in Fukushima (Japan) has had interesting effects of the local wild boar populations (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/radioactive-wild-boars-rampaging-fukushima-nuclear-site-japan-a6972361.html). The boar have been enthusiastically breeding in the human exclusion zone around the former nuclear plant. Breeding has also involved domestic pigs that escaped, at the time of the tsunami, from the area's farms. This has produced some interesting hybrids (e.g hairy pink pigs with spots). The Fukushima boars are gorging on the radioactive vegetation in the region. Population numbers also mean they damagingly raid farms next to the exclusion zone. The numbers of boars shot by farmers has increased from 3000 in 2014 to a current figure of 13,000. There is little evidence the boars have been damaged by radiation but they must be moving potentially dangerous material out of the exclusion zone..

'Underfunded and Toothless'?

The UK is one of the most environmentally damaged members of the G7. The trumpeting' of environmental aspirations appears to be at least as dangerous, as an outright lack of concern for nature. A report from a group of UK Members of Parliament (MPs) notes that, although government policies look impressive, they are currently inadequately monitored/enforced. This means that nature is not really taken into account (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jun/30/toothless-tory-policies-drastic-loss-of-wildlife-uk-aoe). The MPs say the 25 year environmental plan to protect 30% of UK land and sea by 2030, is superficially impressive. The promise to deliver biodiversity net gains on infrastructure projects, also looks good on paper. The report opines, however, that none of the mechanisms (in terms of available expertise, effective monitoring and meaningful punishments) are in place, to deliver on these 'aspirations'. There is a danger that people will be lulled into thinking issues are being dealt with, when nothing much that is positive is happening.

Canada Dry?

The 'heat dome' over the Pacific North-West is responsible for the heatwave affecting much of Western Canada. A record temperature of 47.9 degrees Centigrade (ll8 Fahrenheit) was reached on Vancouver Island (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/30/canada-heatwave-dozens-dead-as-searing-plus-40c-temperatures-grips-vancouver). It was also excessively humid in Vancouver. High humidity makes it feel hotter and reduces the ability of sweating to reduce body temperature. There were almost 70 'sudden death' call outs to police in the area. Predictability, most of these were the elderly and people with underlying health conditions. Over the next few days, temperatures are likely to 'normalise' but extreme events like this heatwave will return with increasing frequency. Authorities need to plan to protect their vulnerable citizens.

Seeing the Changes 1589

In Loughor, alien Butterfly bush (Buddleja davidii) and Great willowherb (Epilobium hirsuitum) were in bloom. In Bynea, Betony (Stachys officinalis) was in flower.

Putting America in the Shade

When it gets hot, the tough move into the shade! The Tree Equity Score looked at socioeconomics (backgrounds and wealth); population density and existing tree cover in almost 500 US cities. The cities had minima of 50,000 residents. Somewhat predictably, communities of colour and poorer neighbourhoods (150,000 of these were studied), had the least tree canopy cover (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jun/29/trees-america-cities-study-disparities). The Tree Equity Score estimated that at least 30 million new trees would have to be planted to provide equal amounts of shade across the USA. This is, of course, not quite as easy as it sounds. The right species of trees would have to be planted in the right places. The optimal tree species could also alter, as climate change further ratchets up local temperatures and changes rainfall. To provide real shade benefit, the trees would also have to be mature or, at least fast growing. Provision would have to be made for the costs of maintaining the trees. Having said that, trees provide more than shade. They enhance the environment and help remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. The Tree Equity Score identified those US cities most needing tree planting. Step forward Chicago; Columbus; Detroit; Fresno; Houston; Jacksonville; Los Angeles; Memphis; New York City; Oklahoma City; Phoenix; Portland; Sacramento; San Diego and San Jose!

You Can't Blame Everything on the Climate Crisis But.....?

The horrendous collapse of the 40 year old, 12 storey-tall Champlain Towers South in the Miami area, cannot be definitely linked to the climate crisis. It should at least, however, force a consideration of the issues (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jun/29/miami-condo-collapse-questions-climate-change). South Florida is in an especially vulnerable position in relation to rising sea-levels. I have already commented on the problems facing the Florida Keys. Here, roads are having to be raised and some homes abandoned to flooding. Sea-levels have risen in the 40 years since the Champlain Towers South condo was constructed. They will inevitably rise still further (even if there is a drammatic reduction in 'greenhouse gas' emissions). The Champlain Towers South was designed at a time, when materials used in the building's construction, would have been less resistant to salt water intrusion. There was a report, from 2018, noting cracking in the building's concrete. The 'soils' in South Florida are sandy, making them very porous. Salt water intrusion would be inevitably increased, as the ground water levels rose. Sea water reaching the foundations of Champlain Towers South, would have had the potential to corrode its concrete and steel, weakening the building. None of this, of course, proves that the climate crisis was the only factor involved in the collapse of Champlain Towers South. It does, however, suggest that climate change has the potential to destabilize buildings, in areas like South Miami. There is an urgent need to evaluate the risks, especially to older, multi-storey constructions.

A Total Eclipse of the Pacemaker

Pacemaker devices have long been used to correct faulty heart rhythms. Indeed, in the UK, almost 33,000 pacemakers were implanted in 2018-19 (just before the Covid19 pandemic). Although some people have conditions, where they require a permanent pacemaker, others (e.g. after open heart surgery) may need the device for only a few weeks. In the latter case, current pacemaker devices carry a few unneccesary risks. The leads placed through the skin can become infected. The external power supply and control system can become dislodged. Heart muscle can be damaged, when the pacemaker is surgically removed (difficult with backlogs due to the pandemic). John Rogers (Northwestern University) has described a bioresorbable pacemaker for temporary use (https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/jun/28/wireless-pacemaker-dissolves-body). This bioresorbable pacemaker is implanted on to the surface of the heart. It has no battery or leads and can be programmed/controlled externally. As the name suggests, it is absorbed by the patient's body, after a defined period of time. This novel pacemaker seems to solve many of the problems associated with using traditional devices for limited periods. It certainly cuts down the need for surgery which is a) time consuming and b) carries intrinsic risks. Heartening!

Seeing the Changes 1588

In Loughor, Garden privet (Ligustrum ovalifolium) was in flower. In Bynea, Tree mallow (Lavatera arborea); Slender St John's wort (Hypericum pulchrum); Ribbed melilot (Mellilotus officinalis) and Common evening primrose (Oenothera biennis) were in bloom. In that location, Blackthorn (Prunus spinosa) sloe berries were much in evidence.

Hoping I Am Wrong

I have, in the past, always been bizarrely amused by people who carry signs saying things like 'The end of the world is nigh'. It must be because I am a Mancunian (they have weird senses of humour). I'm starting, however, to feel that plaque-carrying image is becoming something of a self-portrait. It seems evident that, if we indeed, have time to do something meaningful about the 'climate crisis', that time is going to be very limited. Looking at the world news, however, doesn't exactly currently fill me with optimism. Evidence of climate change and the destructive effects of humans have on the planet appear in every bulletin. Although climate change sceptics may have recently gone a little quieter, they are still out there (and some are still in power, whilst others are planning comebacks). Even leaders who claim committments to counter climate change, often seem bigger on promises than on actions. Political systems also appear, in many cases, to reduce the likelihood of coordinated action. Human greed and hedonism seem to be inherent blockers of serious change. Companies also often seem keener on thinly-veiled greenwash, than on limiting any of their damaging activities, if that might reduce their share price. Perhaps, I will feel better, when it stops raining and the sun comes out? It just depends how much rain and how much sun!

A is for Alzheimer's and Aducanumab

Han Yu (Kansas State University) clearly feels there are some downsides to the US Food and Drug Administration's (FDA's) approval (the first for 18 years) of Biogen's aducanumab (Aduhelm) to treat Alzheimer's disease (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jun/28/alzheimers-drug-aducanumab-approval-dementia). Alzheimer's disease is a form of dementia, affecting around 30 million people world-wide. An effective drug for the treatment of this awful condition would be very happy news. Yu's concerns are consequences of the facts that the a) underlying cause(s) of Alzheimer's appear far from clear; b) FDA decision was a consequence of a rather contentious fast track scheme and c) approval of aducanumab might stop drug companies looking for alternatives to beta amyloid blockers to cure (or prevent) Alzheimer's. Yu points out that the brains of people with Alzheimer's have two obvious pathologies. Firstly, Alzheimer patients have plaques or deposits of beta amyloid between their nerve cells. This is the basis of the dominant Amyloid hypothesis, suggesting that a build up of beta amyloid causes Alzheimer's. The hypothesis has been recently modified, by assuming that beta amyloid oligomers (shorter molecules), rather than actual plaque, are the causal factor. Secondly, people with Alzheimer's dementia have fibres of Tau protein forming tangles within their nerve cells. A third suggestion (unrelated to brain pathology) is that Alzheimer sufferers have developed a metabolic disease, depriving their brains of glucose. Glucose is needed for energy but the brain relies totally on its blood supply for this material. Yu opines that there is currently no conclusive evidence to support any of these three hypotheses. Yu also notes that the FDA put aducanumab on an Accelerated Approval pathway, designed to speed up potential therapies for serious diseases. He was also informed that the FDA's advisory committee almost unanimously (on the evidence presented) voted against the approval of aducanumab. Aducanumab is a preparation of antibodies to beta amyloid. A 2015 trial, by Biogen, found it appeared to drastically reduce neural levels of beta amyloid and limited declines of cognitive and functional skills. This trial involved, however, only a total of only 165 subjects. It also didn't measure oligomers. These were assumed to have declined, because the beta amyloids were lowered. Two subsequent larger studies were initially abandoned, before one was resurrected with the claim that the highest dose of aducanumab was effective. At this point, Biogen went to the FDA for approval. Yu feels that the considerable financial rewards of the approval of aducanumab means that all companies looking for a cure for Alzheimer's, will now continue to look for anti amyloid drugs. This is in spite of the Amyloid hypothesis being far from certain. Things may be further delayed by a plan to test anti amyloids on healthy patients. It is argued that, once cognitive symptoms appear, it is probably too late to counter the neural changes. The focus here would be prevention, with 'a statin for the mind', rather developing a cure. Even better for the company, all people over a certain age would be prescribed the drug. These are all possibilities but Yu reckons it would be several years before we got definitive answers. Then, we might well have to return to our initial starting point, of not knowing the genesis of Alzheimer's.

Frequent 'Fly-Shooting' Fishing

'Fly-shooting' is another name for seine fishing. This type of fish capture involves boats towing weighted ropes along the seabed at either end of a large net. The net first encircles and then traps an entire shoal of fish. It has been estimated boats using this technique can capture up to 11 times more fish than traditional inshore fishing vessels. There have been complaints that allowing 'fly shooters' unfettered access to the English Channel (La Manche en France), leaves no fish for more sustainable operators and also damages the seabed (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jun/28/damaging-fly-shooting-fishing-in-channel-sparks-concerns). Currently, 75 'fly-shooting' vessels operate on the English side of the Channel. They are licenced by the UK's Marine Management Organisation (MMO). Fifteen of these vessels are registered in the UK. The rest are registered in Belgium, France and the Netherlands. In spite of the raised concerns, it appears likely that the MMO have not carried out an impact assessment of 'fly-shooting'. In addition, the Environmental Agency seems impressed that 'fly-shooting' boats are small and produce little 'greenhouse gas'. Proper management of fish stocks requires, however, careful evaluation of the impacts of all fishing techniques.

The Sweating of Yellowstone

Yellowstone is American's oldest and most popular National Park. A report by Montana State University, the US Geological Survey and the University of Wyoming, suggests it will be substantially challenged by rocketing temperatures (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jun/25/yellowstone-national-park-climate-crisis). The report notes that current temperatures in Yellowstone, are higher than they have been for at least 20,000 years. In deed, it may be 800,000 years, since temperatures were as hot. With the current emissions of 'greenhouse gases', temperatures are predicted to climb a further 5-10 degrees Fahrenheit by 2100. Yellowstone Park would then be subject temperatures above 90 degrees Fahrenheit, on 40-60 days a year. There is already less water in the Park. This creates problems for many plants and animals found in Yellowstone, including the herds of North American bison. The Old Faithful geyser also may well stop its circa 90 minute water emissions. Some human populations also rely on water from snow melt in Yellowstone. They are likely to have to find water from elsewhere. Increasing ambient temperatures will cause major disruptions of ecologies in most US National Parks. They would all be fundamentally changed.

The Fittest Variant?

The delta Covid19 variant, first identified in India, is currently the 'fittest' version of the Sars-Cov-2 virus. This variant has now been recorded in circa 92 countries. Research has found that 99% of new Covid19 infections in the UK are the delta variant. This variant may be 60% more transmissible than its alpha ('Kent') counterpart. Delta is probably linked to a greater risk of hospitalisation and may be somewhat more resistant to vaccines (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/27/delta-covid-variant-may-be-edging-race-against-vaccines). So, what accounts for the delta variant's greater transmissibility? It could be the case, that people infected with delta, carry a higher viral load. They could release more virus, as they breathe and speak. Alternatively (or in addition), people may need to be exposed to fewer viral particles from delta to become infected. Finally, a shorter period of exposure may be needed for viral transmission. Data from Sydney (Australia), suggests 'scarily fleeting' encounters, of 5-10 seconds, may be sufficient to pass on the delta variant. People, just walking past a carrier, could be infected. The general advice, from WHO and others, is to 'play it safe' by trying to keep transmission low, whilst rolling out vaccination. Vaccine hesitancy seems to be fading in the UK (but not in some other countries). Vaccination uptake isn't helped by newspaper reports, that most people in England who currently die with Covid19 have been vaccinated. Spiegelhalter and Masters (https://www.theguardian.com/theobserver/commentisfree/2021/jun/27/why-most-people-who-now-die-with-covid-have-been-vaccinated) point out that this is hardly remarkable, in a country, where most adults have been vaccinated. Fewer people now die but vaccination doesn't give complete protection (somewhat negating the logic of the clamour for 'vaccination passports'). An 80 year old, who is vaccinated, carries about the same risk of dying from a Covid19 infection, as a 20 year old without the jab. If pockets of high Covid19 infection persist in areas of the world with low vaccination rates, delta will be superceded by an even fitter (and more dangerous) variant.

Spectating Guinea Pigs?

Some UK scientists are concerned sports fans do not appreciate they will be guinea pigs, when attending events this summer (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/27/sports-fans-warned-you-will-be-guinea-pigs-at-summer-events). Up to 60,000 spectators per match, will be allowed into the Wembley (London) stadium for the semi finals and finals of the UEFA competition (soccer). Their numbers will include many unquarantined UEFA 'worthies' from across Europe. Tens of thousands of fans will also be able to view the tennis at Wimbledon (also London). Up to 140,000 spectators, will pay to see formula 1 car racing at Silverstone (near Towcester, Northamptonshire). The worried scientists are concerned that sports fans have not had this 'risky research' explained to them. It seems unlikely that most spectators will appreciate that this 'research' is actually being allowed to 'determine the risks involved in major gatherings, that might be held later in the year'. People signing up to medical trials, are normally given full information before agreeing to participate. The participants in medical trials are generally paid, rather than having to fork out for expensive tickets. The fans should, at least, have to sign disclaimers, after being given a proper risk evaluation!

Seeing the Changes 1587

In Loughor, the alien Snowberry (Symphoricarpos albus) was in bloom. In Bynea, Vervain (Verbena officinalis) made an appearance. Also in that second location, Black bean aphid (Aphis fabae) infested more than its share of Creeping thistle and Common green capsids (Lygocoris pabulinus) sucked the plantains. In addition, first instar Cinnabar moth (Tyria jacobaeae) larvae hatched on ragwort, whilst an imago carried on the good work. Bynea was where Speckled wood (Parage aegeria) butterflies scrapped and Small tortoiseshells (Aglais urticae) made a late appearance.

Shake, Rattlers and Roll?

The historic drought, in the South-West of the US, has been good news for the Ramirez Rattlesnake Removal company. Rattlesnakes are now becoming common, in and around homes in Northern California (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jun/26/california-drought-rattlesnakes-bears). The rattlesnakes are collected and 're-homed' in remote locations (let's hope they are not homing rattlesnakes!). The lack of water is predictably influencing the behaviours of many other wild animals. Bears can now be seen, in locations where they generally absent. The drought is also influencing the distributions of insects (such as mosquitoes in stagnant water remnants), fish and birds. Several animal-transmitted viral diseases of humans (such as West Nile) are also on the increase in the area. None of this should really be a surprise. The rattlers don't cause climate change.

Before the 'Crime' Actually Happens?

The Extinction Rebellion organisation, uses direct action, to highlight the dangers of climate change, reduced biodiversity, declining sustainability and pollution. Clearly, many of their actions have irritated politicians and some members of the public. This is presumably one reason why UK laws were changed, making it more difficult to campaign. London's Metropolitan police force are expecting a busy weekend with Extinction Rebellion marches planned for Westminster, Lambeth and Southwark. Extinction Rebellion want to focus on the four billionaires who own 68% of the UK's print media. Extinction Rebellion claim the famous four are tax-avoiding, climate change skeptics, with too much political power. They may have a point. The Metropolitan police have 'proactively' raided a number of London locations, associated (in some cases very indirectly) with Extinction Rebellion. Twelve people have been arrested and equipment seized (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jun/26/12-arrested-raids-extinction-rebellion-london-protest ). A Metropolitan police spokesperson stated "Today, we took proactive action to prevent and reduce the likelihood of criminal activity during the course of the weekend". The police would have to act, if they had prior knowledge of a planned murder, an abduction or a bank raid. It seems, however, that the planned marches are not remotely in the same ball park. To be arrested before the 'crimes' have been committed, also seems a tad harsh. Some might argue the Extinction Rebellion folk have valid concerns. It seems odd that you can't demonstrate in favour of preserving the planet (unless you do it in a very quiet way, with nobody watching)? The Metropolitan police also have a somewhat checkered history. They earlier infiltrated 'political' groups. In some cases, their undercover officers had children with females in the groups, to establish their 'street cred'.

Sleepless in Seattle?

A high pressure system, to the North of Vancouver Island and British Columbia, is scheduled to bring record high temperatures to the Pacific North-West (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/25/pacific-northwest-heatwave-washington-oregon). The Pacific NW is usually a relatively cool and damp place. The US National Weather Service reckon, however, that Oregon, Washington and Idaho could all surpass their all-time record temperatures (over 114 degrees Fahrenheit) at the end of June into July. Nights could be especially muggy in Seattle. There, only one third of households have air conditioning, as they don't usually need it! The breaking of weather records (both high and low) seems to be the shape of things to come in many areas of the globe. There was recently a tornado in the South of the Czech Republic in Europe. These things 'never' happen?

Hop To It!

The Large marsh is Brtain's biggest grasshopper. As the name suggests, this grasshopper lives only in wet locations. In the UK, the Large marsh grasshopper has been endangered by habitat fragmentation (largely by draining areas but also a consequence of climate change). The beastie also has limited powers of dispersion. It is consequently difficult for it to repopulate areas from which it has disappeared. The Citizen Zoo organisation have been breeding this grasshopper in captivity. These enthusiasts now plan to release it in marshes and fens across East Anglia (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jun/26/grasshopper-bred-in-captivity-returns-to-east-anglia-marshes). More than 2000 Large marsh grasshoppers (adults and nymphs) have, thus far, been released by Citizen Zoo on land controlled by the Norfolk Wildlife Trust. This is a licenced release approved by Natural England. This is important, because amateur enthusiasts have to be careful not to release the wrong animals in the wrong areas. There are numerous examples (e.g. the Cane toad in Australia), where releases have gone horribly wrong.

Pharmaceutical Sweeteners?

University of Bath academics, Emily Rickard and Piotr Ozieranski, determined that All Party Parliamentary Groups (APPGs) in the UK, received substantial funding from Pharamceutical companies (https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/jun/25/drug-firms-giving-mps-hidden-funding-research-shows). APPGs are found in both the House of Commons and the House of Lords. Rickard and Ozieranski note that accounts for the funding donations are vague and difficult to uncover. They were, however, able to establish that, between 2012 and 2018, 58 health-related APPGs received almost £2.2 m in direct and indirect funding from pharmaceutical companies. Rickard and Ozieranski suggest that, without greater transparency, this is 'a hidden web of policy influence'. To put it bluntly, funding may be given, inorder to favour the products of donating Pharmaceutical companies. Why am I not surprised that political donors may expect something for their money?

Northern Dinosaurs?

Although the Arctic, 70 million years ago, didn't have a big polar icecap, it would still have been a pretty hostile place for a dinosaur. Dinosaur fossils have been found in the far North but it had been assumed they were summer visitors. Gregory Erickson (Florida State University) and colleagues used sieving techniques on Upper Cretaceous deposits of the Prince Creek Formation in Northern Alaska. They found tiny fossils from very young dinosaurs of 7 different types (both herbivores and predators). The evidence, they suggest, means dinosaurs lived and raised their young in the Arctic (https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/jun/24/dinosaur-fossils-eggs-arctic-research). In a paper, in Current Biology, Erickson and colleagues speculate that some of the Arctic dinosaurs may have hibernated or even have been warm-blooded. The Viper (Vipera berus) is also a reptile that can currently be found almost up to the Arctic circle. It certainly does hibernate. Although, Erickson talks mainly about egg-laying by his dinosaurs, it's conceivable that some became ovoviviparous (producing live young). The Viper does this (meaning the species can breed in the far North) and some of the Cretaceous marine reptiles also developed this ability. Ichthyosaurs couldn't return to land to lay eggs.

Blood Test For Cancers?

The US-based company, Grail, devised a 'simple' blood test for cancers. The test looks for fragments of cell-free DNA, leaked into the bloodstream, by tumours. These fragments are detected as changed so-called methylation patterns. As well as revealing the presence (often before signs and symptoms are apparent) or absence of cancer, the test also specifies the tissue in which the tumour is located. The test can pick up 50 types of cancer, including those of the head, neck, ovary, oesophagus and pancreas. It can also detect some blood cancers. The test has been evaluated in a study reported in Annals of Oncology (https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jun/25/blood-test-that-finds-50-types-of-cancer-is-accurate-enough-to-be-rolled-out). The published study looked at more than 2800 people with cancer and more than 1,250 without the disease. The test accurately identified when cancer was present in around 50% (more, with some conditions) of patients. There was an impressively low level of false positives (around 0.5%). The scientists carrying out the study, conclude the test is sufficiently accurate to be rolled out as a screen for the over 50s. In deed, the test will be piloted by NHS England in the Autumn (Fall) of 2021.

The Wrong Psychology?

Stephen Reicher, a member of the UK's SAGE subcommittee advising on behavioural science over the Covid19 pandemic, discusses some of 'Psychology's failures' (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jun/24/psychology-uk-covid-response). Reicher notes that, in the pandemic, Psychology moved from being an afterthought, to becoming mainstream. It was recognised that, to control the virus, people would need to change their behaviours. Unfortunately, 'folk psychology' (actually opposed by most of the behavioural scientists) carried the day. In at least two respects, things were got 'disasterously wrong'. The first, was using the concept of behavioural fatigue (the idea that people will only comply for so long), as an excuse for not locking down earlier. This concept also resulted in opening up prematurely. The second was calling upon a type-casting predudice to argue that the British Public, unlike their East Asian counterparts, would never accept a rigorous test/trace/isolate system. This mistaken view led to delays in developing an effective process. Reicher also notes the UK government favoured a 'top down approach', where concepts like nudge theory, could be used to 'direct' the behaviour of the general population. The approach assumed that people are incapable of understanding complexity and have to be guided. Reicher thinks that working with and through people, is a much more effective way of dealing with crises. This might well have been a better approach for dealing with the Covid19 pandemic in the UK. It is certainly likely to be more effective method for dealing with the climate crisis!

Message Received?

The UK has had an obesity problem in its children for several decades. It is clear that being overweight can result in health problems such as type 2 diabetes and rotting teeth. The Committee on Advertising Practice (CAP) are suggesting banning the advertising of junk food and drink aimed at children. The ban would apply to any media used by sustantial numbers of children. It would also be directed at food and drink products with high fat, salt and sugar contents (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-38239259#:~:text=Online%20ads%20for%20food%20and%20drinks%20high%20in,under-16s%20made%20up%20a%20quarter%20of%20the%20audience.). There is absolutely right to attempt to limit the obesity problem. The CAP report seems, however, to make some distinctly old-fashioned assumptions. It talks, for example, about the 9pm 'watershed', when it is assumed that all susceptible children are packed off to bed. Most children are not, nowadays, exposed to junk food advertising on a limited number of commercial TV channels. They can be exposed on their mobiles. Children can also watch watch and share clips on a variety of media platforms. They can be impressed by the sponsorship of events (like football), recorded for their later viewing. Children can even see advertising, when they walk around supermarkets with their parents etc, etc. Product placement is evident in many shows. If advertising exists, they are going to get to see it. It might be better to try to educate children and their parents about healthier choices? That, however, costs money.

A Keys Decision?

Climate change is creating real problems for the Florida Keys (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jun/24/florida-keys-climate-change-sea-level-rise). The Keys are flat, inhabited areas of land at the Southern tip of Florida. The median increase in sealevel in that area, is estimated to be 17 inches by 2050 (it could be very much more). Flooding is already producing problems. Some authorities are suggesting that sections of the Keys will become unliveable, when mortgages and insurance become unobtainable. This would be the case, even before the houses were inundated. One area, Monroe County, has budgeted $1.8bn, to elevate 150 miles of road, over the next 25 years. That 150 miles is just a proportion of the roads in the location. Seawater already bubbles up through the road and side-walk surfaces when the sea is high. It is naturally hoped to also raise money to save homes. Officials are already admitting, however, that not every building can be protected from the rising waters. The Keys may have to be given up to the seas?

Cheap?

The UK government repeatedly trumpet their 'world-leading' aspiration, to reach a Net Zero target for 'greenhouse gas' emissions, by 2050. Individuals and companies, connected to the oil and gas industries, reportedly donated just over £400,000 to the Conservative party, last year. Their donations came in just before ministers announced decisions on new licences for fossil fuel exploration in the North Sea. Licences for extracting more oil and gas were duly granted (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jun/24/oil-gas-donors-gave-over-400k-tories-before-north-sea-decision). £400k seems a pretty cheap purchase of a 'world-leading' aspiration. How much will the decision to inevitably increase 'greenhouse gas' emissions by this route, cost the country?

Climate Crisis in Microcosm?

Lake Oroville is California's second largest reservoir. It also has a hydroelectric plant, generating electricity for the state. Electricity is needed for many processes, including running air-conditioning to deal with summer temperatures. The water level in Lake Oroville is now so low, the hydroelectric plant cannot operate (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jun/24/california-drought-hydropower-fossil-fuels). This failure of hydropower means California will have to burn more fossil fuels (mainly gas) to maintain the electricity supply. This means increased 'greenhouse gas' emissions. These emissions might well result in increased air temperatures. This will enhance the requirement for air-conditioning. Which means more electricity will be required. It sounds awfully like a typical vicious cycle!

A Hot Tin Roof?

Every year, certainly since 2019, there are annual reports of record temperatures in California's Death Valley. The latest, is a world record (for June) in the Valley's Furnace Creek, of over 53 degrees Centigrade on the 17th of that month (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jun/24/severe-heatwave-in-us-states-breaks-june-temperature-records). The account notes concomitantly unseasonal cold in the Southern hemisphere, with snow falling in Argentina. No such thing as climate change?

Marking Their Own Homework?

It's amazing how varied perspectives can be. The UK's Climate Change Committee has published two progress reports. Lord Deben, its Chair, has given the UK government top marks for their emissions targets. He rates them, however, as 'poor' on government policies to achieve these targets (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jun/24/uk-policies-will-not-deliver-emission-cuts-pledge-says-climate-adviser). The Climate Change Committee basically maintains the UK is lagging behind its key goal of achieving a 78% cut in 'greenhouse gases' by 2035. Their reports makes 200 recommendations, advocating that every government policy should be subject to a 'net zero' test before bein adopted. A UK government spokesperson denies the UK has been slow to reduce emissions, saying the country has 'overachieved' on targets. The mismatches between targets, claims and actions are probably the most worrying feature of the climate crisis debate. Talk is cheap.

It's Later Than You Think?

A leaked draft of a 4000 page report by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is a difficult read (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jun/23/climate-change-dangerous-thresholds-un-report). The IPCC draft report reiterates that dangerous thresholds are closer than was once suggested. The draft also says that the dire consequences of 'decades of unbridled carbon pollution' are, in the short term, unavoidable. They believe the full consequences of climate change will hit the children and grandchildren of the present generation in 30 years time. The draft report attempts to offer a reality check against the ill-defined 'promises' of net zero by governments and corporations. Thank goodness, it's only a draft of the report! There's plenty of time to exert pressures, to get the final report properly sugar-coated.

They Don't Want the Amazon Spaceman Back?

Jeff Bezos (the world's second richest man with $186bn), his brother and a third person (who bid $28m for a seat), will be blasting off from the planet on the 20th July. Their 11 minute flight, will take them and their crew, 62 miles above the Earth's surface. There is now a petition on Change.org to prevent Bezos from returning to Earth, that quickly attracted 77,000 signatures (https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/jun/22/jeff-bezos-space-petition-blue-origin-flight). The reasons for signing the petition are probably very varied. Some could simply object to his obscene wealth. Others might feel his tax avoidance warrants a ban. He gets a bad press on stinginess and poor treatment of workers. Bezos maintains that, seeing the Earth from space, 'changes you'. One must presume he is guessing, as he hasn't yet been into space. It could, however, be an attempt to whip up enthusiasm for space tourism. One might hope the experience will change his appreciation of the Earth's fragility and his role in further damage?

"Some People Think Football is a Matter of Life and Death"?

Bill Shankly's (ancient Manager of Liverpool FC) full quote was "Some people think football (the round ball version) is a matter of life and death. I assure you, it's much more serious than that." Marina Hyde is, consequently, right to point out the absurdity of the UK government, being pressured by the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA), to allow 2,500 of its 'dignitaries' to come to the final in London, without having to undergo quarantine (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jun/22/uefa-variant-boris-johnsons-england-self-isolation). It seems that, if the 2,500 hanger-ons are not given a free pass, the final could be moved to Budapest, in Hungary. This is in spite of the Hungarians being investigated for 'potential discriminatory incidents' (otherwise known as 'racial harassment') by their 'fans'. As Hyde points out, it is already quite difficult to get some sections of the UK public to now take the privations of the Covid19 pandemic seriously. Having a traffic light system for foreign holiday travel (with required quarantine) doesn't sit at all easily with a potential letting in the UEFA variants. It seems that UEFA have got their priorities entirely wrong. This is not for the first time! "They think it's all over. It is, now."

50th Birthday for Blue

Feeling really ancient, as one of my LPs, Joni Mitchell's 'Blue', has reached 50 years of age. Pop aristocrats have been choosing their favourite tracks (https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2021/jun/22/joni-mitchell-blue-my-favourite-song-james-taylor-carole-king-graham-nash-david-crosby-kt-tunstall-birdy). 'Blue' is one of the very few LP's with not a single dud.

A Lack of True Grit?

Politics is said to be the 'art of the possible'. A number of US environmental activists were heartened by the incoming president appearing to follow through on his campaign promises, committing the US to strict climate goals and a 'greener' future. These same people now feel that things are falling apart (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jun/22/biden-climate-change-plan-environment). Firstly, there was a debatable court ruling that the president does not have authority to unilaterally pause oil and gas lease sales across the USA. There is, apparently, little sign the government will challenge that ruling. Secondly, it appears probable that congressional bargaining over the president's climate and infrastructure bill, will result in greatly slimmed down spending. The environmental activists believe there must be more fight (well, they would wouldn't they, or they wouldn't be activists?). Getting meaningful action can't be easy in a highly polarised and bipartisan system. Having said that, time is short. The climate crisis isn't going to go away, with half measures. The US also isn't going to be able to set an example to the rest of the world on environmental issues, if it can't get its own house in order. Talking the talk, without walking the walk, impresses nobody. It's getting harder to believe we humans actually have the capacity, to do what is necessary, to maintain a liveable planet.

More Amber Gambling?

The UK Health minister says he favours allowing quarantine-free travel to amber list countries for fully vaccinated English people (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/22/ministers-planning-quarantine-free-travel-for-fully-vaccinated-in-england-says-hancock). This would be a popular move, especially with the airlines and travel companies. Most countries, where the English typically holiday, are on the amber list. Amber list countries currently require 10 days of home quarantine as well as testing, when one returns to the UK from them. This possible move raises a number of questions. The first is what does the minister mean by 'fully vaccinated'? It is several weeks after getting a second vaccination jab, before full protection is developed. The second is what does he propose to do about fully-vaccinated holiday makers, taking their children, grandchildren or pets with them to an amber list country? Children may have a low risk of developing serious problems, after getting a Covid19 infection but they could certainly carry new variants into the country. Should they (and fido?) isolate? The third is, has the minister consulted with the leaders in Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales?