Monday 7 June 2021

GDP Blues?

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is an economist's measure of a country's commercial activity. The charity, Oxfam, and the insurance company, the Swiss Re Institute, predict that the economies of rich countries, will shrink by twice the figure seen in the Covid19 pandemic, if they fail to curb 'greenhouse gas' emissions (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jun/07/climate-crisis-to-shrink-g7-economies-twice-as-much-as-covid-19-says-research). The world is currently on schedule to become 2.6 degrees Centigrade hotter than pre-Industrial levels within 30 years. Oxfam/Swiss Re predict that the resulting climate change, will cause the G7 (the 7 rich nations, meeting this year in Cornwall), to lose an average of 8.5% of their GDP per year (the figure for the pandemic was 4.2%). These losses would wipe off a total of $5tn within those 30 years. To prevent this 'economic crisis', Oxfam/Swiss Re say the G7 must, not only tackle their own 'greenhouse gas' emissions, they must help developing nations to do the same. I have no problem with their analysis or the suggested remedy. I do worry, however, about this obsession with GDP. Rich countries seem to believe they need their GDP has to climb each year to be 'healthy'. The world is, however, already using 1.6 times the resources the Earth can supply. I suspect we need a bit less GDP for some already rich nations. It would just be nice if the economic declines were managed, rather than being caused by a succession of environmental disasters (floods and droughts). After all, to use a hackneyed phrase, 'you can't take it with you, when you go!' Who is to say the G7 will be around to worry about GDP, if global heating really gets out of control?

1 comment:

Hazel T said...

I like Bhutan’s index where they use Gross Domestic happiness as being more important than GDP so sustainable development takes a more holistic approach towards progress. Non-economic aspects of well-being are included.

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