Friday 7 May 2021

Indian Summer?

Journalist Ankita Rao, notes India's official Covid-19 death toll (currently standing around 222,000) is probably only a fraction of the real number (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/may/06/india-covid-crisis-narenda-modi-government-hiding). Rao says that foreign experts calculate that India's death toll from the virus is probably 60-70% higher than the admitted figure. The numbers are downplayed so as not to 'lose face'. This policy is obviously having dreadful consequences for India's populations. It also, however, reduces the chances of the world bringing the pandemic under control, anytime soon. The UK may already be seeing some evidence of this. Public Health England are apparently concerned about clusters of 'indian variants' of Covid-19 across England (and into Northern Ireland). The Indian variants (designated B16171; B16172 and B16173) are widely distributed (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/06/new-concerns-indian-covid-variant-clusters-found-across-england-ongoing-risk-high). This is yet another illustration of the effectiveness of the quarantine arrangements at UK airports (and what a good idea it is to plan a foreign holiday this summer?). B16172 is of particular concern, as changes in its spike proteins, could mean it is more transmissible. It might also evade some protective immune responses (elicited by vaccination or earlier disease). There are currently almost 50 clusters of B16172 in England. The variant has even been found in care homes (with their vulnerable populations). One can't say too many times, that widespread infections (like those in India), give the virus massive opportunities to mutate. There will be many more 'indian variants', unless the pandemic is squashed in the Republic. Downplaying the figure for infections and deaths, plays into the virus' 'hands'.

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