Saturday, 15 May 2021

The Cropping of Crop Production?

Researchers at Aalto University (Finland) have published a paper in the journal One Earth (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/may/14/third-of-global-food-production-at-risk-from-climate-crisis). At current rates of emissions, the Earth would be 3.7 degrees Centigrade above the temperatures seen in pre-industrial times, by 2100. The climatic change induced would, of course, drastically alter rainfall patterns. The Aalto University group note that, currently, 95% of crop production occurs in 'safe climatic areas' with reliable temperatures and rainfall. These 'safe climatic areas' would be reduced by a third, with the biggest declines being in Southern/ S-E Asia and Africa's Sudano-Sahelian zone. A 3.7 degree Centigrade increase in global heating would consequently put 33% of global crop production at risk, by the end of the century. If the world actually managed to limit its temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Centigrade (as agreed in the Paris cop meeting), the Finnish group estimate that only between 5 and 8% of the 'safe climatic areas' would be lost. The world's human population might be able to cope with that. It certainly couldn't cope with a loss of 33%!

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