Verging?

As they say, 'it was all looking so good' in the UK. A substantial proportion of the UK population had had at least one dose of a Covid-19 vaccine. Infections, hospitalisations and deaths from virus were all substantially down. The English had their 'road map' for a return to normality over May and June (things are broadly similar but slightly different, in Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales). The FA Cup Final had had a trial crowd of 21,000 and other crowds for sporting fixtures were planned. People were booking foreign holidays and looking forward to eating and drinking inside establishments. Art galleries, museums, cinemas and gyms were opening or preparing to reopen. The NHS was starting to think about clearing backlogs of delayed treatments and operations. But, then the 'Indian variant 2' (B1.617.2) came along. Nothing much may change. If B1.617.2 hadn't materialised, modellers at Warwick University predicted a 'modest' 3rd wave of the disease, with 'only' 4-11,000 extra deaths (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/14/india-covid-variant-could-lead-to-third-wave-uk). This extra mortality would be entirely a consequence of opening up but wouldn't overwhelm medical services. There is much that we don't yet know about 'Indian variant 2'. There are suggestions, however, that it could be up to 60% more transmissible and spread more easily. B1.617.2 is already replacing the 'Kent' variant in parts of the country. The Warwick modellers suggest that, if the B1.617.2 is 30% more transmissible, the 3rd wave in the UK will be about as bad as that seen in the 1st wave. If it's 40% more transmissible, the 3rd wave would result in 6000 hospitalisations per day (above the level seen the 2nd peak, that triggered the lockdown). A 50% increase in transmissibility, would generate 10,000 hospitalisations per day. The models assume that Britain continues its reopening process. Early cancelling of some aspects, could reduce hospitalisations. Some scientific advisers are suggesting that the government thinks again. This is looking more like a marathon than a sprint!