Wind and Sun

The International Energy Agency (IEA) present new figures for net renewable (wind and solar) capacity additions since 2011. They also make forecasts for the next couple of years (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/may/11/global-renewable-energy-industry-grew-at-fastest-rate-since-1999-last-year). The IEA make much of the fact that renewable energy growth in 2020, was 45% higher than in 1999. This was, they note, in spite of the disruption caused by Covid-19. The IEA show that wind power doubled between 2019 and 2020. Solar power growth rate was also 50% faster than the previous figure over this time. The IEA, consequently increased its forecast of subsequent renewable energy additions by 25%. This seems a tad oversimplistic (the main changes seen were really only between 2019 and 2020). The IEA histogram shows a modest increase in renewable energy growth in the period 2011-2014. This is followed by a somewhat faster climb between 2015 and 2019. We would all like to see a step change from 2020. It seems, however, too early to say if this is real. There are also some aspects of wind and solar power production that make predictions difficult. China supplies 40% of the global market for solar panels and wind turbines. It is, however, also the planet's biggest emitter of 'greenhouse gases'. The latter is largely a consequence its rocketing energy demands. China's electricity is largely supplied by coal-fired electricity generating stations (an average of 1 per day is currently brought online). The Chinese president has vowed that his country will be carbon neutral by 2060. In order to do this, however, China would have to shut 600 coal-fired plants in the next 10 years. The country would have to massively expand its own renewable use to compensate for this. Will it actually happen? 'May you live in interesting times' is a Chinese saying directed to one's foes. I would prefer things to be a bit less 'interesting' (i.e. more predictable).